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THE AI TAX: WHEN THE AI BOOM SHOWS UP IN YOUR INTEREST RATE

Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh told the IMF meetings in Bangkok this morning that the surge of investment driven by the "craze for artificial intelligence" is one of the factors behind higher inflation — after the Fed's first rate hike in three years and with minutes showing another likely this year. The AI boom is not just a tech story anymore; it is showing up in your cost of capital. 3 measures to position your business on the right side of both curves.

THE AI TAX: WHEN THE AI BOOM SHOWS UP IN YOUR INTEREST RATE

BY JP PAUL

www.proximitycouncil.com

OCTOBER 16, 2026

3 Proactive Measures to Maximize the ROI of Your Reading Time

To ensure reading this article delivers an immediate, measurable return on your investment of time, implement these 3 adjustments this week:

01

PRICE THE NEW COST OF MONEY INTO EVERY AI BUSINESS CASE

THE ROI

Every AI project in your shop — live, planned, or dreamed — was quietly underwritten by a cost of capital that no longer exists. Pull your current AI project list this week and re-run each business case with money priced where it actually is: a ~3.9% policy rate that the Fed's own minutes say is likely to rise again this year, not the zero-era rates your 2024-25 plans assumed. For every project, compute the return at today's rates and at +100 basis points. The projects that only clear the hurdle at the old numbers are not projects; they are hobbies with a dashboard. The ROI: you kill the weak spend before it compounds against you, you concentrate budget on the deployments that still pay at higher rates, and when the hike does land, your plan was already built for it. Companies that repriced their portfolios this way in past tightening cycles did not scramble when the announcements came — they had already made their decisions when decisions were cheap.

THE ACTION

02

BUILD THE TWO-PATH CAPITAL PLAN, NOT THE FED GUESS

THE ROI

Warsh won't prejudge the October 28 and December meetings, and neither should you — but unlike the Fed, you can pre-commit. Write the two-path plan now: Path A (the Fed hikes again by December) and Path B (it holds through year-end). For each path, name exactly what changes in your business: the refinance you do or defer, the equipment lease you convert or keep floating, the inventory you pre-buy or draw down, the hire you accelerate or stage. Attach a trigger date — the morning after each Fed meeting — and pre-authorize the moves so no one spends the following week deciding. The ROI: you have removed forecast-dependence from your Q4 and Q1 capital decisions. Whatever the Fed does, your response is already written, already priced, and already assigned to a name. The certainty JP's founders are always chasing is never in the Fed's statement; it is in the fact that both branches of the plan are profitable. If you cannot write Path A without flinching, you have just found the balance-sheet work to do this month, with two weeks of runway before October 28.

THE ACTION

03

WRITE YOUR ONE-PAGE AI POLICY BEFORE NOVEMBER 16

THE ROI

The Fed's task force meets November 16 to start figuring out what AI means for the economy. Whatever they conclude, it will arrive as rules, costs, and expectations that eventually reach your shop — and there is no better time to write your own one-pager than before theirs. The page answers five questions: what data may employees put into which tools; which decisions require a human sign-off regardless of model confidence; what must be disclosed to customers when AI touches their experience; which workflows are approved for automation this quarter; and what the company will not automate yet, on purpose. The ROI: you convert shadow-AI risk into a governed asset before external rules make ungoverned usage expensive. And there is a harder edge — banks, insurers, enterprise buyers, and acquirers are already asking small companies for exactly this document in diligence and credit reviews. Writing it now costs one afternoon with your leadership team. Writing it after the first incident, audit, or lost contract costs the incident, the audit, and the contract.

THE ACTION

THE FOMO SPENDER vs. THE PRICED-IN OPERATOR

DimensionThe FOMO SpenderThe Priced-In Operator
AI project approvalApproved on excitement; returns assumed at money that no longer existsEvery case re-run at today's rates and +100 bps; only survivors get budget
The Fed decisionA quarterly anxiety event; decisions postponed until the announcementTwo pre-committed paths with triggers; both branches already profitable
AI in the companyUngoverned tools spreading department by departmentA one-page policy, written before the Fed's own task force convenes Nov 16
View of the AI boomA race to keep up, at any cost of capitalA force with two edges — capability rising, money repricing — managed as one decision

THE BOTTOM LINE

The most powerful central banker in the world spent his morning explaining that the technology you are being urged to adopt is one of the reasons your money is getting more expensive, and then told you he does not know what his own institution will do about rates next. That is not a headline to wait out. That is the operating environment for the next several quarters, and it is unusually legible: capability is improving and compounding at the same time the cost of capital is rising, and the rules are being written in real time by people who meet for the first time in a month. Legible environments reward the disciplined. Reprice your project list this week, write both capital paths before October 28, and put one page of AI governance in a drawer before November 16 — so when the manuals finally arrive, from Washington or anywhere else, you already wrote yours. Who you spend time with is who you become. Proximity is power. YOUR NEXT STEP: Get a personalized Business Analysis Report for $9.99 and see exactly which of your AI projects survive a reprice at today's cost of capital — before the next Fed meeting — proximitycouncil.com.

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